“What the hell happens next?” is the question Britain’s Daily Mirror demanded on its front-page Saturday. The British tabloid newspaper isn’t the only one asking what are the next steps for Britain and for Europe – so too are the continent’s leaders, who are now falling out over what to do.
As the continent’s leaders grapple with the widening consequences of the Brexit referendum - a vote that is sending stock markets crashing, currencies plunging, and is imploding political parties - rancor is rising in London and other European capitals. Much of it is driven by alarm and resentfulness. Britain has taken a "swan dive" from a high cliff and grabbed Europe just before jumping, some EU officials argue.
Fear is spreading about whether other EU member countries may flee the bloc and some EU leaders want to punish the British as an example to others who may be contemplating departure.
More than two million Britons living and working or retired in other EU countries are now clamoring to know what will happen to them; will they be allowed to stay or will they lose livelihoods and homes?
Uncertainty is also haunting the more than two million EU citizens living in Britain.
Both groups of expatriates - ignored by the Remain camp and not given a second thought by the Leave camp during the Brexit referendum campaign - feel the vote has turned them into the unwanted children of a failed marriage. They worry they will be held hostage when the terms of the Brexit divorce are negotiated.
Their worries were not eased Friday when the increasingly testy European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told German television, “This is not an amicable divorce.” With a sideswipe, he sniffed: “It was not exactly a tight love affair anyway.”
Juncker, who gave an irritable “No” when asked at a news conference in Brussels Friday whether Brexit signals the end of the EU, is now pressing for Britain to be bundled out the door quickly and for negotiations to start immediately on the terms of the separation.
He argues there is no reason to wait until Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron - who announced Friday he will step aside for a fresh leader - is replaced in October by the country’s ruling Conservative Party.
The British government - even the Leave campaigners - want to delay invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which outlines a two-year negotiation process for separation. Cameron argues his successor should do that - and British officials maintain the referendum result has first to be endorsed formally by Britain’s Parliament before it is legal.
EU officials insist a quick process is needed to halt the panic on financial markets. “Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty,” according to Juncker.
But EU officials admit privately this is not the only reason for their determination to get on with a quick separation process.
They suspect the British want to hold off on formal negotiations and to arrange informally a pre-separation agreement whereby the divorce talks go hand-in-hand with negotiations on a tailored free trade deal for Britain with the EU; a seamless transition the British hope will ease the economic pain of Brexit.
But pain is exactly what some EU officials, infuriated by the Brexit referendum, have in mind. Their attitude is that Britain had a vote, made a decision and that is that. “Britain has to pay a price,” a senior EU official told VOA. “The British can’t have their cake and eat it too,” he added.
Juncker hinted at the same thing publicly when in his formal statement acknowledging the referendum result he said: “We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be.”
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is another hardliner, arguing, “the page has turned” on Britain. Speaking at a news conference Friday in Rome, he argued the 27 remaining members should now focus on themselves and reform the EU. “We say this more than ever, convinced that the home needs renovating, perhaps freshened up, but it's our home.”
Not all have punishment in mind.
The German Finance Ministry, according to a strategy paper leaked to German newspaper Die Welt, argues the best way to head off any domino effect with France, Austria, Finland or the Netherlands possibly leaving would be to offer quickly Britain status as an “associated partner country,” giving it the benefits of the European single market, and to bring to a close rapidly the chapter on Brexit before tempers flare more.
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has also moderated his position. Earlier this month he slammed the door on the possibility of Britain following a Swiss or Norwegian model and being allowed access to the single market without being an EU member, saying on June 10, “That won’t work…In is in. Out is out.”
But on Friday he said revenge shouldn’t be exacted on the British for the Brexit referendum.
A softer approach with the British won’t guarantee smooth talks, though, especially if Cameron’s replacement is the tousle-haired and seldom diplomatic former London mayor Boris Johnson, whose anti-EU rhetoric has deeply offended EU leaders.
He and other Leave campaigners who will dominate a new Conservative government, such as Michael Gove, are unlikely to accept conditions that will be demanded by even sympathetic EU countries in return for partner status. A key one will be to accept the principle of Europe-wide freedom of movement, allowing Europeans to live and work in Britain.
British youngsters, who voted overwhelmingly to stay in Europe, are most interested in that principle being observed post-Brexit.
Their anger is rising at the referendum result and is fueling an initiative to petition parliament to agree a re-run referendum. They say the result of Thursday’s was too narrow and the petition has already attracted more than one million signatures, 10 times the number necessary to trigger a House of Commons debate where a large majority of lawmakers oppose Brexit.
Some lawmakers are hoping that during the pause before the British government invokes Article 50 the clock can be turned back. But EU foreign ministers meeting in Berlin say the referendum has to be implemented, arguing there can’t be a cat-and-mouse game.
via Voice of America http://ift.tt/28TAOoh
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