Wednesday 22 June 2016

North Korea's Failed Missile Tests Show Real Progress

North Korea's latest missile tests may have failed, but they indicate the Kim Jong Un government is continuing to advance its ballistic missile technology, in defiance of United Nations sanctions. 

Pyongyang conducted its fifth and sixth test of the intermediate-range Musudan missile on Wednesday from the coastal city of Wonsan. U.S. and South Korean military officials said the first missile failed shortly after it was launched but the second missile flew approximately 400 kilometers before falling into the Sea of Japan or East Sea as it called in South Korea.

The last missile tested did not reach the 3,000-kilometer distance the Musudan is designed for, to potentially reach U.S. military bases in Asia and the Pacific. It apparently also did not demonstrate the atmospheric re-entry capability needed to accurately hit a target.  But analysts said North Korea continues to learn from each failure and is making advancements with each new test.

“This is a very important milestone because the previous launches had blown up either very shortly after launch or possibly even right at launch. So this is a real sign of progress,” said Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.

The multiple missile tests, Lewis said, also indicates that international sanctions have so far not affected North Korea’s ability to acquire the material and technology needed to manufacture these weapons.

According to South Korean media, North Korea is believed to have up to 30 Musudan missiles, which officials said were first deployed around 2007.  The first Musudan test occurred in April of this year.

International condemnation

U.N. Security Council resolutions ban North Korea from using ballistic missile technology and developing nuclear weapons.  The United Nations imposed tough new sanctions on North in March for conducting its fourth nuclear test and launching a long-range rocket. The sanctions include suspending currency transfers and restricting the North’s lucrative mineral trade that had accounted for over half of the country’s $2.5 billion in exports to China alone.

Leader Kim Jong Un has declared his country a nuclear state and has defiantly responded to the international sanctions by conducting multiple missile tests and threatening to proceed with further nuclear testing.

Japan's Self Defense Forces have been on high alert with anti-missile launchers stationed around the country in case the North Korean missiles entered its airspace.

Tokyo said it would issue a strong protest against North Korea for its latest violation of United Nations resolutions.

In this frame taken from TV, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, applauds during the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, North Korea, May 7, 2016.
In this frame taken from TV, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, applauds during the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, North Korea, May 7, 2016.

South Korea called the missile test a clear provocation “against us” and urged Pyongyang to exercise restraint.

“I would like to advise them that it will be good for North Korea to put more effort into peace on the Korean peninsula and their people's livelihood, which the North has been consistently saying," said South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-hee.

U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby condemned the launch, and said the United States intended to "raise our concerns at the U.N. to bolster international resolve in holding the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) accountable for these provocative actions."

China regional security conference

North Korea’s latest missile test will likely be addressed at a closed-door regional security forum currently underway in Beijing that includes diplomats from North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea.  At the conference, North Korean envoy Choe Son Hui is expected to defend her country’s right to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself against the perceived threat from the United States.

Even though China is North Korea’s key ally and trading partner, Beijing opposes Pyongyang’s nuclear program and supports the most recent U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea.  However critics said enforcement has been lax as China does not want to destabilize the Kim Jong Un government, and it is unlikely Beijing will support any further measures that would weaken its ally.

“Considering the current situation in Northeast Asia, it is not easy for China to impose sanctions against North Korea as North Korea can be a card for China,” said Korea analyst Woo Su-keun with Donghua University in Shanghai.

Chinese President Xi Jinping recently met with high-level North Korean party officials in Beijing to bolster ties that have been frayed by the North’s nuclear provocations.

Xi has called for restarting international talks to convince the North to give up its nuclear program for economic aid and security guarantees.

Washington and its allies demand that North Korea first halt any further nuclear development before new talks can take place.

Youmi Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.

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